Jonathan Schwarz: Bill Kristol's Obscure Masterpiece. This starts as a review of Kristol's extraordinary record for screwing up every analysis and prediction he's ever made, then gets more interesting as Schwarz pulls excerpts from a debate between Kristol and Daniel Ellsberg that occurred a few days after Bush invaded Iraq. It includes a synopsis of US-Saddam relationships up to the war, starting with the CIA-backed coups that brought Saddam to power. It includes Ellsberg's prediction that we would wind up betraying the Kurds yet again, then points out how the US looked the other way when Turkey bombed Kurdistan. You don't need this to conclude that Kristol is a fool, but the historical review is worth rehashing. Five years later we still hear people pleading that nobody knew it would all go so wrong. The fact is that some people knew perfectly well. And some others were plain idiots.