Sunday, March 9. 2008
Trita Parsi: Treacherous Alliance: The Secret Dealings of Israel,
Iran, and the United States (2007, Yale University Press)
I wound up marking a huge number of quotes in Parsi's book, so
some sort of executive summary is in order. The book doesn't really
cover the latest sabre rattling, but offers much necessary background
to understand what's happening, not least the superficial and cynical
opportunism exhibited by all three powers.
One striking thing is the relative continuity of interests shared
by Iran under the Shah and under the Islamic Republic. These relate
to deep-seated national values: resentment against British, Russian,
and (more obliquely in the Shah's case) American imperialism and the
reduction of a proud empire to second- or third-class status in the
region and the world; the even deeper rivalry between Iran and its
Arab neighbors, reinforced by language, culture, and the Sunni-Shia
religious divide. The main differences between the two periods are
that after the Shah was overthrown the US became much more hostile
toward Iran (broken up by stretches of malign neglect), and under
Khomeini Iran's attempts to project regional influence were mostly
couched in religious terms.
The US attitude toward Iran shifted in 1953, when the CIA staged
a successful coup against Iran's democratic government (the Shah had
been installed by the British in 1944, but his powers were limited),
and again in 1979 when the Shah was overthrown. Before 1953, British
control over Iran's oil industry left the US on the sidelines with
no particular role, although US oil companies had started to operate
in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states. After the coup, the
Shah developed into one of the most megalomaniacal rulers of recent
years, especially in the 1970s with oil prices booming and Iran
given a favored role as a US proxy under Kissinger's geopolitical
scheme.
The main thing Americans remember about Iran is that during the
revolution Iranian student seized the US embassy and held Americans
hostage for over a year. The Carter administration was frustrated
by the hostage crisis. Ronald Reagan turned this to his advantage,
securing the release of the hostages as soon as he took office.
Reagan enjoyed a secretive relationship with Iran leading to the
embarrassment of the Iran-Contra affair, but he also tilted toward
Iraq in its war against Iran. Since then the US has veered between
indifference and outright hostility, the latter tracking Israel's
changing attitudes toward Iran.
Parsi maps out Israel's changing relations with Iran, showing
that Israeli attitudes had more to do with Israel's own strategic
power interests than with whatever Iran was or was not thinking
or doing at the time. In particular, he shows how Yitzhak Rabin
and Benjamin Netanyahu at various times took pro- and anti-Iran
stances depending on other factors. Rabin, for instance, despite
a long history of supporting Israel's "peripheral strategy" that
favored good relations with Iran, turned hard against Iran while
working on the Oslo peace process -- with the Palestinians no
longer in play as Israel's existential enemy, Rabin ratcheted up
tensions with Iran to keep Israel stocked with a critical enemy.
Netanyahu, hoping to dismantle Oslo, took the opposite tack,
dismissing Iran as a threat while emphasizing the Palestinians.
Later on, with Oslo routed, Netanyahu became the prophet of
Iranian doom. The two US-Iraq wars both resulted in Israel
ratcheting up rhetoric against Iran. Both Iraq wars threatened
to undermine the special US-Israel relationship because both
times the US found itself in need of Arab allies than and unable
to make much use of its alliance with Israel. Stirring up trouble
between the US and Iran helped bolster Israel in America's eyes.
(Although in the latter case, one might argue that US neocons
were so far ahead of everyone in opposing Iran that the Israeli
support was merely helping out.)
One conclusion we should draw from this is that Israel has
from the very beginning thought of nothing but continuing its
conflict. The reasons for this may have varied over time, but
whenever Israel makes a step toward peace they immediately
undermine it with a counterstep toward more war. One example
is how Oslo was matched with Rabin's exacerbation of Iran.
An earlier example was how the 1979 agreement with Egypt was
followed by the 1982 invasion and occupation of Lebanon. All
through history, Israel has primarily viewed its relationship
with Iran in terms of conflict: the reason Israel supported
Iran both under the Shah and later during the Iran-Iraq war
was for Iran's strategic value against Israel's Arab enemies.
As Arab countries have dropped out of the conflict, Iran was
seen as more of a threat in its own right, even though Iran's
ideological and rhetorical position against Zionist Israel
has been consistent. The fact that Iran has almost never acted
against Israel in any concrete way has never mattered.
Another thing worth noting here is how Israel's neediness
interferes with trying to construct a realistic American foreign
poicy. The US has done things to Iran that we should be ashamed
and apologetic for: overthrowing Mossadegh, arming the Shah,
arming Iraq in a war with Iran that left over a million dead.
There's also smaller items, like the Iranian airliner the US
shot down. Iran's own record has more than a few blemishes on
it, but there have been opportunities to put these things to
the side and rebuild a constructive, respectful relationship
that would help both countries. Certainly the US would benefit
from a civil working relationship with Iran when dealing with
major problems in Iraq and Afghanistan, but our inability to
separate US interests from Israel's demands has made that
impossible. Instead, the confluence of Bushist and Sharonist
war mongering keeps driving Iran into a corner, making them
more wary and more dangerous -- despite all the belligerent
threats coming from Bush's hawks, probably more than anyone
responsible in the US military wants to bite off for now.
Parsi's book is notable for showing us the full history of
these relationships, and how nonsensical the conflicts have
become.
Quotes follow in the extended body.
(pp. xi-xii):
The current enmity between the two states [Israel and Iran] has
more to do with the shift in the balance of power in the Middle East
after the end of the Cold War and the defeat of Iraq in the first
Persian Gulf War than it does with the Islamic Revolution in
1979. Though the Iranian revolution was a major setback for Israel, it
didn't stop the Jewish State from supporting Iran and seeking to
improve its relations with the Khomeini government as a counter to
Israel's Arab enemies. Ironically, when Iranian leaders called for
Israel's destruction in the 1980s, Israel and the pro-Israel lobby in
Washington lobbied the United States not to pay attention to
Iranian rhetoric. Today, even though Iran's revolutionary Islamist
zeal is far from what it was in the 1980s, things have changed quite a
bit. The Iranian government, in turn, has pursued a double policy
throughout this period: In the 1980s, Iran made itself the most vocal
regional supporter of the Palestinian cause. Yet its rhetoric was
seldom followed up with action, since Tehran's strategic interest --
reducing tensions with Israel and using the Jewish State to
reestablish relations with the United States -- contradicted Iran's
ideological imperatives. After 1991 and the efforts by the United
States and Israel to create a new Middle East order based on the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process and on Iran's prolonged isolation,
however, Iran's ideological and strategic interests overlapped, and
Tehran decided for the first time to become a front-line opponent of
the Jewish State. At this stage, both Israel and Iran used their
influence to undermine U.S. foreign policy initiatives that they
deemed beneficial to the other. Iran worked against the peace process,
fearing that it would be left isolated in the region, and Israel
sought to prevent a U.S.-Iran dialogue because it feared that
Washington would betray Israeli security interests if Iran and the
United States were to communicate directly. To this day, that logic
prevails in both capitals, and it is fueling the tensions in the
region.
(p. 8):
Some two hundred thousand Iranian Jews and their descendants live
in Israel. Some of them belong to the highest levels of the Israeli
political elite. In the Islamic Republic, these individuals would
never have been able to excel in their careers. Long before reaching
prominence, they would have been stopped by the glass ceiling that
separates religious minorities, seculars, and disbelievers from those
considered to be capable of being loyal to the Islamic
Republic. Current Israeli President Moshe Katsav and Deputy Prime
Minister (and former Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces [IDF]
and Defense Minister) Shaul Mofaz were both in Iran. The recently
resigned IDF chief of staff, Dan Halutz, was born to Persian
immigrants.
(pp. 8-9):
Since the Iranian revolution there has been an unwritten
understanding between Iran's Jewish minority and the Iranian
authorities. As long as the Jews of Iran oppose Zionism and the
Israeli state, they would be protected in Iran and given a great deal
of religious freedom. "This arrangement, which makes a clear
separation between being a Jew and being a Zionist, was the
community's idea; they brought it to the Khomeini regime after the
revolution," noted David Menashri, Israel's most prominent expert on
Iran, himself an Iranian-born Jew. Khomeini issued a "fatwa," a
religious decree, declaring that Jews were to be protected.
Few Iranian Jews take Ahmadinejad's anti-Israel rhetoric seriously,
and they point to the fact that little has changed for Iranian Jews
under him. "Anti-Semitism is not an eastern phenomenon, it's not an
Islamic or Iranian phenomenon -- anti-Semitism is a European
phenomenon," Ciamak Morsathegh, head of the Jewish hospital in Tehran,
explained. Iran's forty synagogues, many of them with Hebrew schools,
haven't been touched. Neither has the Jewish library, which boasts
twenty thousand titles, or Jewish hospitals and cemeteries. Still,
Iran's Jews have not sat idly by. The Jewish member of the Iranian
Majlis, or parliament (most religious minorities are guaranteed a seat
in the parliament), Maurice Mohtamed, has been outspoken in his
condemnation of Ahmadinejad's comments. "When our president spoke
about the Holocaust, I considered it my duty as a Jew to speak about
this issue," Mohtamed told the Guardian. "The biggest disaster
in human history is based on tens of thousands of films and
documents. I said these remarks are a big insult to the whole Jewish
society in Iran and the whole world." Haroun Yashayaei, the chairman of
Iran's Jewish Council, quickly followed suit, sending Ahmadinejad a
strongly worded letter protesting his remarks. The Jewish community
won support from Mohammad Khatami, Ahmadinejad's more moderate
predecessor. "we should speak out if even a single Jew is killed," the
reformist president said in widely published remarks in early
2006. "Don't forget that one of the crimes of Hitler, Nazism and German
National Socialism was the massacre of innocent people, among them
many Jews."
Iran under the Shah refused to officially recognize Israel, but
maintained close relations in many concrete ways (pp. 25-26):
Iran preferred to keep most of its collaboration with Israel out of
the public eye. On the one hand, the Shah believed that overt
relations with Israel would harm Iran's standing with the Arab nations
and fuel Arab opposition to Iranian policies in the Persian Gulf. On
the other hand, he needed Israel in order to balance the threat from
the Soviets and pro-Soviet Arab states. To minimize the visibility of
his Israeli dealings, the Shah decided to have interactions with
Israel handled by Iran's dreaded secret police -- Sazeman-e Ettela'at
va Amniyat-e Keshvar (Organization of Information and State Security,
or Savak). In 1957, the Shah ordered the Iranian intelligence service
to establish relations with the Israeli intelligence agency, the
Mossad, and manage Iran's sensitive dealings with the Jewish State,
which often kept the Iranian Foreign Ministry in the dark. Iranian
military and secret police operatives were secretly trained by Israeli
intelligence officers in both Iran and Israel. Israel also trained
four hundred Iranian pilots, paratroopers, and artillery men and sold
Iran high-tech military equipment. According to one former Iranian
ambassador, the Mossad also trained the Savak in torture and
investigative techniques as well.
(pp. 50-51):
Regional primacy has been the norm rather than the exception for
Iran throughout its three-thousand-year history. Between 550 B.C. and
A.D. 630, Persia was one of the world's leading powers, defeating the
armies of Babylon, Assyria, Egypt, Athens, and Rome. The Persians
established the world's first empire, stretching from Libya in the
west to Ethiopia in the south, Bulgaria in the north, and Indian in
the east. In the empires of the Parthian and Sassanian dynasties,
mighty Rome found its match. Iran has vast natural resources, a unique
geostrategic position, a vibrant culture, and a population that dwarfs
those of most of its neighbors. Well aware of these advantages, the
Iranians have consistently aspired to the role of primus inter pares
in regional politics. These realities did not escape the Shah, who
dreamt of resurrecting Iran's past glory and turning it into the
mighty power it had once been. Only under Iranian supremacy, the Shah
believed, could the region flourish and find an escape from war an
bloodshed. Iran was the "only nation capable of maintaining peace and
stability in the Mideast," he wrote on his deathbed in Answer to
History. In the minds of the Iranians, their country was the
natural hegemon in the Persian Gulf; the weakness of Iran's neighbors
disqualified them from legitimately aspiring to that position. "No one
could match Iran's power, Iran's culture, or Iran's history,"
explained Gholam-Reza Afkhami, former adviser to the Shah. "It's
important to realize this in order to understand why [the Shah] did
what he did. And also why everyone else in the world said that he was
arrogant."
Washington was well aware of the Shah's aspiration for imperial
grandeur and found Iran's motivation legitimate even though its
ambitions often clashed with those of Washington. The Shah's ambitious
economic reforms, as well as his lavish military spending, were all
aimed at actualizing Iran's potential as the region's most powerful
nation. By the early 1970s, there were clear indications that Iran had
reached this position. During the 1960s and 1970s, Iran quickly
outgrew its neighbors in terms of economic and military strength,
making it the "obvious major power in the region." On February 12,
1971, the Shah's minister of court wrote in his diary that Iran was
"rapidly assuming leadership not only over the Persian Gulf but over
the Middle East and the entire oil-producing world." Iran's oil
revenues jumped from the millions into the billions. Much of this oil
revenue was used to modernize and expand Iran's military, as well as
to grant loans to Iran's Arab neighbors.
In 1973, during and after the Egypt-Syria war with Israel (p. 47):
Yet, at the same time, Iran refused to join the Arab oil embargo
against Israel and continued to supply Israel with oil throughout the
conflict. Iran had an official policy of disallowing the use of oil as
a political weapon. "We never accepted oil embargoes against any
country," explained a former Iranian ambassador. "We didn't believe in
using that weapon." This policy enabled Tehran always to be in a
position to sell oil to all parties of a conflict. In addition, Iran
also supplied the Israel Defense Forces with arms, including badly
needed heavy mortars.
Israel developed close relations with Kurdish leader Mullah
Mustapha Barzani, supporting his struggle with Iraq. Iran was
able to use this relationship to put its own pressure on Iraq
(p. 53):
In spite of the Shah's hesitations, Israel managed to bring both
the Iranians and Barzani -- who had his own apprehensions about the
Shah's motivations -- on board after several months of lobbying. The
United States was informed about the cooperative efforts and agreed to
lend limited clandestine support. Iran, too, wanted its role in the
collaboration to be inconspicuous.
The first agreement was sealed in May 1965, in Mustapha Barzani's
own headquarters in Iraqi Kurdistan. Dressed in traditional Kurdish
costumes, Savak, the Shah's secret service, and Mossad officials
crossed the Iraqi border by foot to reach the headquarters o the
Kurdish guerrillas. Israel offered to train, fund, and arm Barzani's
forces in order to stage a large-scale offensive against the Iraqi
army. The funding and the arms shipments were to be channeled through
Savak, which also provided the Israelis with a land corridor into
Iraqi Kurdistan. Iranian cooperation enabled a steady flow of Israeli
arms, doctors, medical supplies, and instructors to make their way to
Iraqi Kurdistan from Israel via Iran.
Having pressured Iraq, the Shah then turned around and cut a deal
with Iraq that undercut the Kurds (pp. 54-55):
In March 1975, however, the Kurdish operation came to a sudden end
as Iran pulled the rug from under Israel and its primary lever against
Iraq. Algeria's president, Houari Boumédienne, had informed the Shah
that Iraq's de facto ruler, Saddam Hussein, planned to attend the OPEC
summit in Algiers in order to negotiate an end to Iraqi-Iranian
hostilities, including their border dispute over the Shatt
al-Arab/Arvand Rud waterway. On March 3, 1975, the Shah left for
Algeria, and, three days later, Boumédienne announced that the
conflict between Iran and Iraq was over. The two countries reached a
border agreement that called for each side to refrain from
interference in the other's internal affairs and that established a
division of control over the Shatt al-Arab/Arvand Rud waterway, a
long-standing territorial objective of Iran. Through this Algiers
Accord, the waterway dispute was clearly resolved in Iran's favor and
was initially hailed by many as one of the Shah's foremost triumphs,
as it boosted Iran's status as the paramount power in the Persian
Gulf. [ . . . ]
The agreement took Israel and the United States by complete
surprise. The Shah neither consulted nor informed his Israeli and
American allies about the negotiations with the Iraqis, not did he
indicate that the collaboration with the Kurds was in jeopardy.
(p. 63):
The Shah himself was known for his suspicions of -- and at times
contempt for -- Israel and world Jewry. The Iranian monarch had an
exaggerated belief in Jewish influence in Washington, believing that
American Jewry controlled the U.S. media, among other things. His
overblown estimation of the Jewish lobby's influence caused many
headaches for Israel, but it also provided Israel with a degree of
deterrence. "The Shah believed -- quite erroneously -- that every
op-ed in the New York Times was the work of Israel -- so he
didn't want to antagonize Israel," commented a senior Israeli official
stationed in Iran. As the image in America of the Shah's rule
deteriorated in the 1970s and was increasingly characterized by human
rights abuses and lack of democracy, the Iranian emperor's need of the
Jewish lobby's good offices grew. This enabled Israel to offer Iran
the support of the Jewish lobby in return for Iranian concessions. But
according to Ambassador Hoveyda, former head of the Permanent Mission
of Iran to the UN, Shimon Peres gave the Shah only empty
promises. Offering the support of the Jewish lobby "was a cheap trick
on the part of Shimon Peres. It didn't cost him anything. He would
[offer help], but he would do nothing."
(p. 75):
The Iraqi acquisition of Scud ballistic missiles prompted the
initiation of one of the most secretive and controversial
collaborations between Iran and Israel -- Project Flower. The Shah
instructed Gen. Toufanian to turn to the Israelis for missile
technology. The Israeli response went beyond just a sale of American
missiles. Tel Aviv proposed a collaboration that would use Iranian
funds and Israeli know-how to develop a missile with a range of two
hundred miles. Israel contended that Tehran needed indigenously
produced ballistic missiles in its arsenal, and the Shah was all
ears. "You must have ground-to-ground missiles," Israeli Defense
Minister Ezer Weizman told Toufanian. "A country like yours, with
F-14s, with so many F-4s, with the problems surrounding you, [must
have] a good missile force." The initial discussion had already begun
under the Rabin government. The Shah and then-Defense Minister Shimon
Peres signed an agreement in April 1977 in Tehran, together with five
other oil-for-arms contracts totalling $1 billion. The objective was
to extend the range of an existing Israeli missile and replace
American-supplied parts so that Israel could legally export it without
Washington's approval. The Israeli missile included American-made
inertial navigation equipment and a guidance system that Tel Aviv was
forbidden to make available to other countries.
Further down, Parsi notes (p. 76): "A critical aspect of Project
Flower was that the missiles could be fitted with nuclear warheads,
although this possibility wasn't pursued at the time." The project
ended with the 1979 revolution.
(p. 95):
In early 1980, only months after the eruption of the hostage
crisis, Ahmed Kashani, the youngest son of Grand Ayatollah Abol Qassem
Kashani, who had played a key role in the nationalization of the
Iranian oil industry in 1951, visited Israel -- most likely the first
Iranian to do so after the revolution -- to discuss arms sales and
military cooperation against Iraq's nuclear program at Osirak. Though
he presented himself as a "concerned private citizen," his trip
resulted in Begin's approval of the shipment of tires for Phantom
fighter planes as well as weapons for the Iranian army. Begin's
decision completely contradicted U.S. interest and Washington's
explicit policy of isolating Iran to secure the release of the
American hostages. Carter was infuriated by Begin's insensitivity
toward the trauma America was undergoing. After a harsh exchange
between the two tough-minded leaders, Carter reprimanded Israel by
putting on hold future sales of spare parts to the Jewish State.
(pp. 95-96):
Increasingly it was becoming clear that Iran's rhetoric against
Israel did not match its actual policy. At the same time that Iran was
secretly dealing with the government of Israel, it was openly
condemning the Jewish State and questioning its right to exist. For
instance, on August 14, 1980, the Iranian Foreign Ministry called for
an end to oil sales to countries that supported Israel. After much
fanfare, the threat was never acted upon. "The ideological opposition
to Israel," explained a Tehran-based expert on Iranian foreign policy,
"played a role for this regime before the revolution." Once in
power, the revolutionary government's foreign policy was "rhetorial
opposition to Israel but practical collaboration . . . with the Jewish
State."
In 1980 Iraq attacked Iran, which underscored the fact that Israel
and Iran shared a common enemy; also, initial encounters between the
PLO and revolutionary Iran soured quickly, so Iran was never tempted
to translate anti-Israeli rhetoric into concrete PLO support (p. 100):
Out of Iran's strategic dilemma, with ideological and strategic
forces pulling its foreign policy in different directions, emerged a
multilayered strategy that continues to bewilder political analysts
and foreign leaders alike. Instead of opting to balance the Arabs by
aligning with Israel, or to seek accommodation with the Arabs by
taking the lead against Israel, Tehran chose to do both by
differentiating between its operational policy and its rhetoric. On
the other hand, Iran collaborated secretly with Israel on security
matters, and, on the other, it took its rhetorical excesses against
Israel to even higher levels to cover up its Israeli dealings.
(p. 102):
In a three-hour conversation with his close associates during the
early days of the war [with Iraq], Ayatollah Khomeini spelled out the
Islamic Republic's approach to the Palestinian conflict. According to
the Father of the Iranian revolution, and the person embodying its
ideology, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was primarily a
Palestinian issue. At the second level, it should involve the
Arab states neighboring Israel, and only at the third level should it
involve Iran and other Islamic states. As a result, Iran should never
be more involved in the conflict than the Palestinians themselves and
their Arab neighbors, and Iran should not be a frontline state against
Israel. Direct confrontation with the Jewish State should be left to
the Palestinians themselves and their immediate Arab neighbors. "We
never wanted to get directly involved in the fights against Israel,"
explained Ali Reza Alavi Tabar, who belongs to the reformist faction
of the Iranian government. Khomeini also told his associates that in
the event of an agreement between the Palestinians and the Israelis,
Iran should lend its support to the agreement by standing behind the
Palestinians.
During the early years of the Iraq-Iran war, Khomeini was given
ample opportunity to demonstrate Iran's differentiation between
rhetoric and operational policy. On June 6, 1982, when Israel invaded
Lebanon, several leaders of Lebanon's Shia community, including the
head of what later became the Lebanese Hezbollah, were in Tehran for a
conference. News of the attack came when the conference was in
session, and the Shia leaders immediately turned to Iran for
help. Khomeini agreed and sent a high-level delegation, including the
Iranian defense minister and some elite troops, to Syria to look into
Iran's potential role. On June 11, the Iranians arrived in Syria, but
they soon concluded what Khomeini had suspected all along -- that the
Lebanon war was a diversion to take Iran's focus away from
Iraq. Saddam had on the eve of the Lebanon war offered peace with Iran
and called on Tehran to join Baghdad in fighting Israel. Khomeini had
refused. [ . . . ]
This wasn't an isolated incident. In 1986, fighting broke out
between Hezbollah and the pro-Syrian SSNP (Syrian Social Nationalist
Party) as a result of Syria's efforts to bring Hezbollah under its
control. This put Iran's ally in Lebanon at odds with Iran's ally
against Iraq. Tehran chose the latter.
(p. 111):
Southern Lebanon had traditionally been the home of Lebanon's
disenfranchised Shia Muslim community. The Shias initially welcomed
the Israelis because of their own competition with Palestinian
refugees for local resources and their resentment of the PLO's often
heavy-handed rule of the south. But the Shias wee dismayed when the
Israelis overstayed their welcome by creating a "security zone" in the
south. They soon turned against Israel as it blocked the Shias' access
to northern markets and began dumping Israeli goods into their local
economy, causing indigenous economic interests to suffer. In addition,
Israel's invasion had been immensely destructive and only added to the
misery of Lebanese who had already been suffering from seven years of
civil war. Close to 20,000 Lebanese were killed in the invasion, and
another 450,000 were displaced. In September 1982, under Sharon's
direction, a Lebanese Christian militia unit entered the Palestinian
refugee camps of Sabra and Shatila in Beirut. With tacit Israeli
approval, the militia raped, killed, and maimed as many as several
thousand civilian refugees. Approximately one quarter of those
refugees were Shias who had fled the violence from the south.
The plight of the Shias under Israeli occupation made them
receptive to Tehran's message. Faced with a mighty Israeli opponent,
the Shias desperately needed an external ally, and Tehran was more
than willing to play the part -- not so much to act out its
anti-Israeli sentiments but rather to find a stronghold in an Arab
country. Tehran badly needed progress in exporting its revolution. It
had failed in Iraq and Bahrain, in spite of the majority Shia
populations of those countries. Now, thanks to the Israeli invasion of
Lebanon, Iran was given the opportunity to plant the seeds of an
Islamic revolution in the Levant. Out of the Israeli invasion emerged
a new and invigorated Shia movement, inspired by Iran's
revolution. Initially just a small number of armed groups of young men
organized under the banner of Islam and dedicated to fighting the
Israeli occupation, over time they banded together -- through Iranian
help and assistance -- into what has proved to be one of Israel's most
formidable foes -- the Lebanese Hezbollah.
The beginnings of the Iran-Contra scandal (pp. 117-118):
After Peres' intervention, Reagan gave his approval to conduct a
secret investigation of the proposed move and assigned it to Michael
Ledeen, an American University professor who in Nomrodi's words was
"known as a true and warm Zionist who often attended public events on
behalf of Israel." Asked by McFarlane to keep both the State
Department and the CIA in the dark, Ledeen arranged a meeting with
Shimon Peres in Tel Aviv on May 6, 1985. Known today as one of
Washington's most ardent opponents of any form of contacts with the
Iranian regime, Ledeen belonged to the opposite camp back then. Ledeen
told the Israeli prime minister exactly what he wanted to hear:
America's lack of intelligence on Iran was deplorable and it needed
Israel's assistance in establishing dialogue with Tehran. The Israeli
prime minister "willingly granted the request," according to
Nimrodi. "We have been approached by senior members of the Iranian
regime, through middlemen, concerning sales of military equipment,"
Peres told Ledeen. The Israeli prime minister suggested that it might
be useful to send a trial balloon to Tehran -- one arms shipment, to
test the intentions of the Iranians. Even thought he CIA was largely
kept in the dark about the dealings with Iran, it supported the idea
of reaching out to Iran to prevent it from falling into the Soviet
Union's orbit and even recommended arms sales to Iran through a third
country to strengthen Iranian moderates and improve U.S. intelligence
on Iran.
(p. 128):
But Israel wasn't discouraged by these failures. Israel's
worldview, which remained remarkably unaffected by the changing
realities of Iran and by Israel's peace treaty with Egypt, was still
dominated by the periphery doctrine -- by the fear of Iraq and the
promise of Iran. Defense Minister Rabin often invoked the Iraqi threat
to justify the need to reach out to Tehran. At a press conference in
October 1987, he deplored skirmishes between the U.S. and Iranian
navies in the Persian Gulf and told reporters "that the United States
had been manipulated by Iraq into attacking Iran in the Persian Gulf
War, and . . . that Israel had not changed its own longstanding tilt
towards Iran." He went on to reveal in the starkest possible terms
Israel's unfazed view of Iran as a strategic partner." Iran is
Israel's best friend and we do not intend to change our position in
relation to Tehran, because Khomeini's regime will not last
forever."
These were not empty words. Close advisers to Rabin testify that,
in private, he often spoke of Iran with great nostalgia. He told
U.S. Ambassador Thomas Pickering on numerous occasions during his
tenure in Israel between 1985 and 1988 that "the United States has to
find a way to develop closer relationships with Iran." According to
Pickering, "despite the then recent Revolution in Iran, he was very
much interested in Iran and thought it was very important to develop a
change in the relationship." Other prominent Israelis echoed these
sentiments.
The "periphery doctrine" was the theory that Israel could find
allies among non-Arabs in the Middle East, especially nations on
the outer edges of the Arab bloc that had traditional rivalries
with the Arabs. Turkey and Iran were the main examples, but Israel
pursued relationships with other non-Arab groups like the Kurds,
and with minority Arab groups like the Marionites in Lebanon and
the Druze within Israel itself.
In 1990, after Saddam Hussein's Iraq invaded Kuwait (pp. 140-141):
This new political dynamic -- in which Israel was a liability
rather than a strategic asset to the United States -- was most
worrisome to Tel Aviv, even though the destruction of Saddam's war
machine greatly benefited Israel. Much to Israel's anger, both the
United States and the United Kingdom used the promise of resolving the
Arab-Israeli conflict as a carrot to convince the Arab states to join
the anti-Iraq coalition. To make matters worse, William Waldegrave,
British minister of state at the Foreign Office, stated in Parliament
that, in the new Middle East order, Israel had ceased to
matter. Waldegrave told the House of Commons that the United States
should learn that a strategic alliance with Israel "was not
particularly useful if it cannot be used in a crisis such as
this. . . . [N]ow the U.S. knows that an alliance with Israel that is
of no use for this situation is useless."
(p. 149):
With U.S.-Arab relations already warming, a breakthrough in
U.S.-Iranian ties could wipe out what little strategic significance
Israel retained. Unlike Israel, Iran was strategically located right
between the world's two largest reservoirs of oil and natural gas: the
Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea. Iran bordered the newly freed but
landlocked central Asian states, which sat on major reserves of oil
and natural gas and held the promise of becoming major markets for
Western goods. With a population of more than sixty million, Iran
itself offered a market that was ten times larger than that of
Israel. As the Cold War ended, the Jewish State wrestled with the
question of how to prove its strategic utility to the United
States.
Washington's eagerness for Middle East peacemaking after the Gulf
War pushed U.S.-Israel relations to a new low. The United States was
at the apex of its power and needed to show the world that it would
use its diplomatic muscle to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian issue
once and for all. "It was time to seize the moment because
. . . something potentially significant [was] stirring among the
Arabs," Secretary of State Baker felt. The new attitude of the Arabs
could convince Israel to opt for peace, he optimistically
believed. But Baker was in for a surprise. Shamir and Israel's Likud
government were not in the mood to be convinced, nor were they excited
about Washington's new confidence in Middle East peacemaking,
suspecting that it was fueled by the Bush administration's debt to
Syria and Egypt for their support in the Persian Gulf War. "There was
a feeling that there was an inherent danger in this," explained
Halevi, the former head of the Israeli Mossad. "The United States
might feel a necessity to tilt towards the Arabs. . . . The conditions
of peace would be such that it would not be acceptable to Israel."
The Bush administration organized a multilateral peace conference
in Madrid, pointedly excluding Iran (pp. 154-155)
The noninvitation to Madrid was in many ways the last straw for
Rafsanjani's policy of détente with Washington. Already, Iran felt
that its policy modifications and outreach had failed to be recognized
and appreciated by the Bush administration. First, Washington chose to
keep Saddam in power and let a good portion of the Iraqi Republican
Guard remain intact to balance Iran. "This was done on purpose,"
explained Col. Lawrence Wilkinson, former Secretary of State Colin
Powell's chief of staff. "Just enough of the troops were kept not to
be a threat to Iraq's neighbors, but well enough to balance Iran."
Second, Washington preempted the creation of an inclusive security
architecture for the Persian Gulf. "It was the first time that Iran
did a grand gesture. It sold on credit, [and] it got nothing in
return," Namazi recalled. "[Iran] clearly felt that the policy of
isolation would be in place no matter what it did." Rafsanjani's
goodwill gestures carried significant domestic political risk, and
fewer and fewer officials around the Iranian president were willing to
pay the cost of flirting with the United
States. [ . . . ]
As soon as it became clear that an invitation to the conference
wasn't forthcoming, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali
Khamenei, gave a green light to Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour -- one of the
cofounders of the Lebanese Hezbollah who during the 1980s had lobbied
Ayatollah Kohmeini to actively confront Israel -- to organize a
conference in opposition to Madrid. This was a watershed moment, as
Iran for the first time started to seriously reach out to rejectionist
Palestinian groups, in spite of the Shia-Sunni divide and their enmity
dating back to the Iraq-Iran war. Only a year earlier Iran had even
reduced its financial support to Hezbolah in Lebanon. Iran took the
political lead against the Madrid conference, a position it wouldn't
have taken had Washington invited it to participate, according to
Ruholla K. Ramazani of the University of Virginia, the foremost expert
on Iranian foreign policy.
(p. 160):
By the summer of 1993, the PLO was near collapse. It had failed to
translate its tactical gains from the Intifada into political capital
on the international scene. And with its financial support dried up,
bankruptcy was just around the corner. In its hour of desperation, the
PLO simply had to make a deal with Israel. "If they didn't we would
overrun them entirely," asserted Israel's former Mossad chief, Efraim
Halevi. Both the Palestinians and the Israelis agreed to peace
precisely because the PLO was dying: the Palestinians were too weak to
seek an alternative solution, and the Israelis were so strong that a
better deal could hardly be found. It was better for Israel to save a
weakened PLO than to destroy it, the Labor Party argued. "The
neighbors were weak, the Palestinians were broke, Syria had no backer,
Egypt was out of the game, so we had a great window of opportunity to
make peace," said Keith Weissman of the American Israel Public Affairs
Committee (AIPAC). To Peres, it was nothing short of an opportunity to
turn the tide of history.
If Israel missed this opportunity, it would risk facing a
radicalized Palestinian population in the future, possibly led by
Hamas.
Israel finally turned on Iran following the lead of Ephraim Sneh,
Amod Gilad, and Uri Lubrani, who argued that Iran, with their
long-term potential for developing a nuclear weapons program, had
become Israel's greatest threat (p. 162):
Rabin was a skeptic at first. He didn't appreciate Sneh's efforts,
asking him to tone down his rhetoric and refrain from making Iran a
legislative focus. But only a few months into his reign as prime
minister -- and two years before Iran became directly involved in
Palestinian terror against Israel -- Rabin's skepticism was replaced
with passion and enthusiasm. The doctrinal shift was a reality.
Swiftly, a campaign was organized to convince the United States and
the EU that Iran was a global threat. Peres and Rabin made sure that
Israel's new fear of Iran wouldn't escape anyone's notice. By October
1992, they began echoing Iran's inflammatory rhetoric. Repeating their
slogans at every opportunity, the Labor leaders adopted an
unprecedented tone against Iran. Peres accused Iran of "fanning all
the flames in the Middle East," implying that the failure to resolve
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was rooted in Iran's meddling rather
than in the shortcomings of Israel and the Palestinians. Rabin accused
Iran of having "megalomaniac tendencies" and that it sought to become
the "leading power in the region." He told the Knesset in December
1992 that Israel's "struggle against murderous Islamic terror" was
"meant to awaken the world which is lying in slumber" to the dangers
of Shia fundamentalism. "Death is at our doorstep," Rabin concluded,
even though only a few years earlier he'd called Iran a strategic
ally.
(pp. 163-164):
Israel based its case on a number of factors. First and foremost,
Israel accused Iran of seeking nuclear and chemical weapons. Warning
the international community that Iran would be armed with a nuclear
bomb by 1999, Perest told France 3 television in October 1992 that
"Iran is the greatest threat [to peace] and greatest problem in the
Middle East . . . because it seeks the nuclear option while holding a
highly dangerous stance of extreme religious militantism." You can't
deter a fanatic, terrorist state with nuclear weapons, the Israeli
foreign minister argued. And if the nuclear-armed Shia theocracy
acquired ballistic missiles as well, Iran would become a greater
threat than the Palestinians. (Israel wouldn't learn of the extent of
the Iranian missile program until late 1994.)
Second, the nature of the Iranian regime wand its anti-Israel
ideology was a threat in and of itself. Coexistence with such an
irredeemable regime was impossible. Iran was "insane," Peres and Rabin
declared and added that Khomeinism was the only ideology left that
bleieved that ends justified means. "Khomeinism without Khomeini" was
Rabin's mantra as he spoke of Israel's new security environment. The
veteran Israeli politician, who "never missed an opportunity to blame
Iran," argued that Khomeini's fundamentalist ideology continued to
live on even after the ayatollah's death and that it had replaced
Communism as an ideological threat to the West. Rabin repeated his
mantra on Khomeinism in "every single speech he gave when he
traveled," Makovsky noted. "I think he said it a thousand times. He
was really focused on Khomeinism." And Iran, after all, did question
Israel's right to exist.
(pp. 165-166):
But however passionately Peres and Rabin spoke of the Iranian
threat, the numbers weren't on their side. The skepticism that met
their accusation was rooted in a rather simple fact -- no one believed
that Iran overnight had turned into a major threat to the
region. Though Iraq's demise had benefited Tehran, it had also led to
an unprecedented buildup of the armies of the Gulf Cooperation Council
(GCC) states. Saudi Arabia in particular stood out. Its military
spending dwarfed that of Iran. The Saudis spent more than $40 billion
on arms in 1991, at a time when Iran's military expenditure stood at
$6.7 billion. Iran's aging military was less of a threat to the Arabs
than the Arabs' sophisticated U.S.-built weaponry was to Iran. Israel
itself did not let the optimism for peace reduce its military
budget. On the contrary, the threat portrayal of Iran helped justify
Israel's military expansion. With a military budget of $8.7 billion in
1992, Israel, with a population of four million, outspent Iran, with a
population of sixty million. (Rafsanjani cut Iran's military spending
from $6.7 billion in 1991 to $4.2 billion in 1992, according to the
U.S. State Department.) During his very first meeting with Clinton,
Rabin changed Israel's annual arms request from tactical F-16s to
modified F-15e's that could reach Iran. Israel ordered twenty-five of
these, for $85 million each.
(p. 167):
Some Israelis say that Israel needs an existential threat. It could
be a country, like Iran; an ideology, like Islamic fundamentalism; or
at other times it could be a tactic -- terrorism. "You have to
recognize that we Israelis need an existential threat. It is part of
the way we view the world. If we can find more than one, that would be
preferable, but we will settle for one," an Israeli Iran expert
explained to me. This phenomenon is deeply rooted in the Jewish
experience. After centuries of persecution, a Holocaust that almost
wiped out the entire Jewish population in Europe, and fifty years of
statehood punctuated by frequent wars, such thinking is
understandable. When facing an existential threat, countries tend to
work from worst-case scenarios. Everything that happens is then judged
against that worse-case scenario. "When you are always prepared for
the worst, you can pass off subpar performances as the best thing that
ever happened," the Iran expert joked. [ . . . ]
"It's much easier to give worst-case scenarios. It usually serves
the personal interest of the planner. Because if you are giving the
worst-case prophecy, then when it is not realized, everyone is
happy. No one remembers it. But when it is realized, you can always
say, 'I told you so.'" [Brom] laughed as he said this, but I got the
feeling that his levelheadedness had not been popular at the Israel
Defense Forces. He had been part of the Israeli intelligence apparatus
when it systematically overestimated, and at times exaggerated, Iran's
nuclear capabilities. "Remember," he said mockingly, "the Iranians are
always five to seven years from the bomb. Time passes but they're
always five to seven years from the bomb."
(p. 175):
News of the meeting was leaked to the press on August 27 [1993],
and less than three weeks later, with much fanfare, the Declaration of
Principles was signed by Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and PLO
official Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) at a White House ceremony. The deal
was symbolically concluded with a historic handshake between Yasser
Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin -- the two former enemies. Against all odds,
and in complete secrecy, the Israelis and Palestinians had succeeded
in brokering a peace deal that could push Iran to the fringes of
regional politics in a way that Madrid never could. Iran reacted
swiftly and harshly. It elevated opposition to Israel into high policy
by increasing its rhetorical opposition to Israel and announcing in
the hard-line newspaper Ettelaat that Iran would offer
limitless support to the opponents of the Oslo agreement. Almost
overnight, the cold peace that reigned between Israel and Iran in the
1980s turned into a cold war. [ . . . ]
Peace between the Arabs and the Israelis wasn't a threat to Iran
per se. Only when combined with the Israeli-American effort to isolate
Iran -- depict it as a threat and exclude it from regional
decision-making -- did peace make Tehran nervous.
(p. 177):
In spite of [Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar] Velayati's
denials, Israeli intelligence pinned the blame on Iran for a spree of
mid-1994 terror attacks targeting Israeli interests worldwide. On July
18, 1994, a bomb blew up in the headquarters of the Argentine-Israeli
Mutual Association (AMIA) in Buenos Aires. Eighty-six civilians were
killed and more than three hundred wounded in what was the worst
terrorist attack to date in Argentine history. Nobody has been
convicted of the attack, but few in Israel doubt who the culprits are
-- Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah.
Two years earlier, on March 17, 1992, a bomb had destroyed the
Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29 people. Though other
groups had claimed responsibility for this bombing, Israel still
suspected a Hezbollah link. According to Israeli accounts, these
terror attacks were retaliations for Israeli operations in South
Lebanon. Israeli forces had assassinated the leader of Hezbollah,
Sheikh Abbas Mussawi, and his family a month before the embassy
bombing. Three months before the AMIA attack, Israel had bombed a
Hezbollah camp deep inside Lebanon and kidnapped Lebanese Shia leader
Mustafa Dirani in an attempt to extract information on a missing
Israeli soldier. "There is no doubt that the [embassy] bombing was
connected to the Mussawi operation and that the government at the time
was unaware of possible consequences for Jews abroad," said Avinoam
Bar-Yosef, the director general of the Jewish People Policy Planning
Institute, a Jerusalem think tank affiliated with the Jewish Agency
for Israel and the Israeli government.
As Rabin and Peres escalated their anti-Iranian propaganda, Israel
came more and more to see Iran's hand behind these bombings, which
as far as I can tell still aren't clearly linked even to Hezbollah.
(p. 193):
Needless to say, Rabin's tough stance added new friction to an
already tense relationship. "He wasn't the ultimate diplomat," Hordes
recalled. What helped soothe relations was Iran. Israel's new push
against Iran provided AIPAC with an opportunity to reinvent itself in
the Oslo era, when its traditional function of countering Arab
influence in Washington had become obsolete. "AIPAC made Iran a major
issue since they didn't have any other issue to champion," said Shai
Feldman of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv. "The
U.S. was in favor of the new peace process, so what would they push
for?" AIPAC needed a new issue, and Israel needed help in turning
Washington against Iran. It was a win-win situation.
(p. 185):
By October 1994, Washington started to adopt the Israeli line on
Iran. In response to Israeli pressure -- and not to Iranian actions --
Washington's rhetoric on Iran began to mirror Israel's talking
points. U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher told an audience at
Georgetown University in October 1994 that "Iran is the world's most
significant sponsor of terrorism and the most ardent opponent of the
Middle East peace process. The international community has been far
too tolerant of Iran's outlaw behavior. . . . The evidence is
overwhelming: Iran is intent on projecting terror and extremism across
the Middle East and beyond. Only a concerted international effort can
stop it."
(pp. 186-187):
In his attempts to expand Iran's economic relations with the
international community, Rafsanjani had for years fought to reopen
Iran's oil industry to foreign companies. The symbolism of this move
was significant. The oil industry had played a central role in the
Iranian revolution and in the country's economic and political
development earlier in the twentieth century. Iran opened bidding for
production agreements for two of its off-shore oil fields to
international companies in 1994. The first oil contrract after the
revolution, worth $1 billion, was expected to go to the French-owned
Total. However, after having negotiated with Conoco, Iran announced on
March 6, 1995, that the contract would go to the Americans. The deal
was approved by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself and was intended as an
olive branch to Washington, the Iranians say. To ensure the blessing
of the White House, Conoco had kept the U.S. government closely
informed of its negotiations. The State Department had repeatedly
reassured Conoco that the White House would approve the deal.
For AIPAC, the Conoco deal "was a coincidence and a convenient
target." The organization went into high gear to use the Iranian offer
not only to scuttle the Conoco deal, but also to put an end to all
U.S.-Iran trade. In a report that it released on April 2, 1995, titled
"Comprehensive U.S. Sanctions Against Iran: A Plan for Action," AIPAC
argued that Iran must be punished for its actions against
Israel. "Iran's leaders reject the existence of Israel. Moreover, Iran
views the peace process as an American attempt to legalize Israel's
occupation of Palestinian, Muslim lands," it said. Pressured by
Congress, AIPAC, and the Israelis, President Clinton swiftly scrapped
the deal by issuing two executive orders that effectively prohibited
all trade with Iran.
The decision was announced on April 30 by Clinton in a speech
before the World Jewish Congress.
After Rabin was assassinated, new Israeli prime minister Netanyahu
shifted Israel's enemy focus away from Iran and back toward the PLO
(pp. 196-197):
Much to Gilad's frustration, Netanyahu focused on PLO leader Yasser
Arafat and the Palestinian threat instead of on Iran, and he put a
complete end to Israel's confrontational rhetoric against Tehran. It
was a major policy shift that affected all levels of Israel's planning
vis-à-vis Iran. "Until the Netanyahu government, there was a
proliferation of Israeli statements trying to deter Iran, warning
Iran, the long arm of the Israeli air force, etc. That was stopped, to
his credit, by Netanyahu," said Ehud Yaari of Israel's Channel
2. According to Dore Gold, who served as Netanyahu's UN ambassador,
the new Israeli prime minister wanted to avoid the mistakes of his
predecessor. "There was a sense that perhaps some of the rhetoric of
the previous Peres government might have damaged certain relationships
in the region. For example, by talking about the new Middle East and
Israel having an economic role," he said. Several of Netanyahu's
advisers went so far as to argue that Israel and Iran shared mutual
interests, beyond the disagreements between them. Israeli media
sympathetic to the Likud government's shift on Iran argued that the
previous Labor government was to blame for the escalation with Iran,
citing Israeli envoy Lubrani's efforts to convince the Clinton
administration to finance a coup d'état. The publication of the Labor
initiative had "caused huge damage to Israel," unnamed Israeli
intelligence officials told Israel's Channel 2. "If in the past the
United States was the great Satan and Israel the small Satan, then
today the Iranians regard Israel as the Satan that sits inside the
brain of the big Satan and activates it."
[ . . . ]
But Netanyahu went beyond just lowering the rhetoric. He tried to
reach an understanding with Iran through the help of prominent Iranian
Jews, he stopped Israeli attacks on Iran within international
organizations, he arranged for meetings between Iranian and Israeli
parliamentarians to reach out to their Iranian counterparts at
meetings of the Inter-Parliamentarian Union.
(p. 199):
Thirdly, from a domestic political perspective, Netanyahu aimed to
turn the Israeli public against the Oslo process and end the
land-for-peace formula. But he couldn't direct Israel's anger toward
Arafat and the Palestinians if Iran was seen as the source of the
terror. "Blaming the Iranians for Palestinian terrorism would be
counterproductive to his message that terror was coming from the
Palestinians," Weissman of AIPAC explained. Just as the idea of an
Iranian threat served Peres and Rabin's desire to convince the Israeli
public to support reconciliation with the Arabs, that idea undermined
Netanyahu's efforts to convince Israelis to oppose that very same
reconciliation.
(p. 201):
For Iran, however, Likud's political agenda and opposition to Oslo
were good enough. The Iranians preferred Likud over Labor for the same
reason that Likud blamed the Palestinians and not Iran: An Israel that
didn't pursue a peace based on Iran's isolation wouldn't need to turn
Washington and the international community against Iran. "In Iran, the
perception was that Likud wasn't serious about peace [with the
Palestinians], so they did not need a scapegoat," an Iranian political
strategist told me bluntly. "Labor, however, needed a scapegoat."
Of course, when Likud later decided they wanted a scapegoat, they
found Iran as useful as Labor had earlier.
(pp. 221-222):
But while Israel accused Iran of funding Palestinian terror, the
Palestinians themselves complained about empty Iranian
promises. Clearly, Iran's rhetoric still conveyed a sense of Iranian
obligation toward the Palestinians. Iran's supreme leader told the
head of Hamas that "the holy war for Palestine is for the honor of
Islam and Muslims, and we will continue our firm support for the
Palestinian people despite all the political and economic pressure,
and that the issue of Jerusalem was "not a Palestinian problem, but
one for all Moslems." But it was easier for Iran to offer rhetorical
rather than practical support. The Iranian slogans were rarely
followed up with concrete actions, even after the outbreak of the
second Intifada. While the Iranians took the lead in making grandiose
speeches about the Palestinian cause, they seldom tried to live up to
the standards they set in their statements. European diplomats in
contact with representatives of Islamic Jihad and Hamas who visited
Iran after the Intifada broke out reported that both groups were
utterly disappointed with their Iranian hosts. Tehran provided them
with neither money nor weapons. A joke in the streets of Tehran
reflected Iran's pretense: "Why aren't there any stones left to stone
the adulteress? Per the order of the Supreme Leader, all the stones
have been shipped to Palestine as Iran's contribution to the
Intifada."
(pp. 223-224):
In both capitals, it was thought that if Al Gore and Joe Lieberman,
they would continue the Clinton administration's Middle East policies:
strong support for Israel and the Middle East peace process, along
with significant pressure to sanction and isolate Iran (even though
Clinton, toward the end of his presidency, sought to reach out to
Iran). Rightly or wrongly, the Iranians believed that Clinton's
greatest mistake was that he let Israel dominate America's foreign
policy in the Middle East and that he unnecessarily linked Iran's
long-standing but resolvable problems with the United States to Iran's
bitter rivalry with Israel.
It was thought that a George Bush-Dick Cheney White House, on the
other hand, could bring back the foreign policy approach of the elder
George Bush -- pressure on Israel to withdraw from Palestinian
territories, greater sensitivity to the intrerests of Washington's
Arab allies, and an energy policy that wouldn't cut off American oil
businesses from major markets such as Iran. After all, Dick Cheney,
George W. Bush's vice-presidential running mate, had as the CEO of the
American energy service company Halliburton severely criticized the
Clinton administration's economic sanctions on Iran.
The Iranians were wrong about Bush and Israel, but after 9/11
they found common ground on Afghanistan (p. 226):
Having a staunchly anti-Iranian and anti-Shia government in
Afghanistan hardly undermined the Clinton administration's overarching
goal of isolating Iran. That policy came back to haunt America a few
years later. But now, the Iranians were eager to offer their help to
Washington and show America the strategic benefits of cooperation with
Iran. "The Iranians had real contacts with important players in
Afghanistan and were prepared to use their influence in constructive
ways in coordination with the United States," recalled Flynt Leverett,
then senior director for Middle East affairs in the National Security
Council. The plan that had been prepared by Powell called for
cooperation with Iran that would be used as a platform for persuading
Tehran to terminate its involvement with anti-Israeli terrorist groups
in return for a positive strategic relationship with Washington.
The plan incensed Israel. Suddenly, much like after the end of the
Cold War, events in the Middle East risked making Israel a burden
rather than an asset to the United States, while giving Iran a chance
to prove its value to America. If a U.S.-Iran dialogue was initiated,
there would be "a lot of concern in Israel," Yossi Alpher, an adviser
to Barak and a former Mossad official, told me. "Where are we [Israel]
in this dialogue? Will the U.S. consult with us about our needs and
fears? Will we be part of some package deal with Iran and if so, what
part?"
(p. 227):
Israel and U.S. neoconservatives, who had found their way back to
the corridors of power after Bush's election, had a different plan in
mind. America should put all the actors it accused of supporting
terror on notice -- particularly Iran and the Palestinian
Authority. In a letter signed by forty-one prominent neoconservatives,
including William Kristol, Richard Perle, and Charles Krauthammer,
Bush was urged to target not only al-Qaeda, but also Hezbollah and
demand that Iran and Syria immediately cease all military, financial,
and political support for that organization. If they refused to
comply, Bush should "consider appropriate measures of retaliation
against these known state sponsors of terrorism." Starting a war with
Iran and Syria could overstretch the United States, but it would also
put America and Israel on the same side of the war and increase --
rather than decrease -- the United States' need for Israel.
(pp. 228-229):
The talks progressed better than expected. The discussions focused
on "how to effectively unseat the Taliban and, once the Taliban was
gone, how to stand up an Afghan government," and the Iranians gave
extensive assistance to the United States in the war, unaware of what
was about to unfold after the success in Afghanistan. The Iranian
diplomats impressed their American and European counterparts
tremendously with their knowledge and expertise about Afghanistan and
the Taliban. And Iran's help was not negligible. The Iranians offered
their air bases to the United States, they offered to perform
search-and-rescue missions for downed American pilots, they served as
a bridge between the Northern Alliance and the United States in the
field against the Taliban, and on occasion they even used
U.S. information to find and kill fleeing al-Qaeda leaders.
[ . . . ]
Nowhere was the common interest of the United States and Iran more
clear than during the Bonn Conference of December 2001, at which a
number of prominent Afghans and representatives from various
countries, including the United States and Iran, met under UN auspices
in the capital of Germany to decide on a plan for governing
Afghanistan. The United States and Iran had carefully laid the
groundwork for the conference weeks in advance. Iran's political clout
with the various warring Afghan groups proved to be crucial. It was
Iran's influence over the Afghans and not America's threats and
promises that moved the negotiations forward. It was also the Iranian
delegation -- and not Dobbins -- that pointed out that the draft of
the Bonn Declaration contained no language on democracy or any
commitment on behalf of Afghanistan to help fight international
terrorism. Curiously enough, Dobbins instructions contained nothing
about democracy.
Bush thanked Iran by including them in his "Axis of Evil."
(p. 241):
But once they concluded that the minds of the neoconservatives in
the administration were set and that President Bush would go to war
with Iraq no matter what, Israel changed its tactics. By late spring
2002, a new wave of Israelis approached the White House. "It was the
most curious thing I ever saw," recalled Lawrence Wilkerson, Secretary
of State Colin Powell's chief of staff. The message of the second wave
was rather different: Iraq was a threat, they argued, and they
provided new intelligence to back up their sudden change of heart. But
so was Iran, they said, and Washington should not stop at invading
Iraq. Iran should be the real target, but the Iranian threat could
not be addressed unless Iraq was first neutralized. The government of
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon saw the invasion of Iraq as a necessary
step to a follow-up war against Iran. In early November 2002, Sharon
revealed the Israeli objective when he urged Washington to invade Iran
"the day after" Iraq was crushed.
The Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization (MKO) is a terrorist organization
dedicated to overthrowing the Islamic Republic of Iran. It was long
supported by Saddam Hussein. When Israel turned on Iran in the early
1990s the MKO made numerous overtures to Israel for support. The US
had put MKO on its official terrorist organizations list, and Israel
was initially cautious, but against the Axis of Evil, the MKO started
to collect supporters (pp. 245-246):
In the White House, the Iranian terrorists were protected by
Rumsfeld, Cheney, and the other neoconservatives, who saw the MKO as a
potential asset in an effort to destabilize the Iranian regime. After
the U.S. invasion, the secretary of defense had decided, much like
Saddam himself had done, to use the MKO fighters to keep the Iraqi
population in check. He let the MKO keep their weapons and ordered
them to man checkpoints in southern Iraq alongside U.S. troops. When
Powell argued that the United States could not cozy up to a terrorist
organization in the midst of America's own war on terror, Rumsfeld
replied that he did not have enough troops to disarm the MKO.
The hawkish defense secretary's position on the MKO was an open
secret in Washington. In late May 2003, ABC News reported that the
Pentagon was calling for the overthrow of the Iranian regime by "using
all available points of pressure on the Iranian regime, including
backing armed Iranian dissidents and employing the services of the
Mujahedin-e Khalq." (though Powell finally managed to close the MKO's
offices in downtown Washington, D.C., in August 2003, the group is
still active in the United States and Iraq. In January 2004, members
organized a major fundraiser at Washington's MCI Center, with Richard
Perle, a key figure in neoconservative circles, as one of the key
speakers. The MKO's spokesperson and top lobbyist, Ali Reza
Jafarzadeh, has since found employment as a terrorism expert for the
Fox News network.)
After the 2003 invasion of Iraq was launched, Iran came to the US
with a proposal to settle all differences (pp. 249-250):
Hard-liners in the Pentagon and vice president's office interpreted
the Iranian proposal -- probably correctly -- as a sign of
weakness. Iran could have made this offer -- one that blatantly
countered its official ideology -- only because it was weak and
desperate, they argued. These officials opposed a deal with Iran no
matter what the ayatollahs offered, because, they said, America could
get what it wanted for free by simply removing the regime in
Tehran. If, on the other hand, talks were initiated and America
accepted Iran's assistance, Washington would be put in the awkward
situation of owing the ayatollahs. Why talk to Iran when you could
simply dictate terms from a position of strength? After all, the swift
success in Iraq showed that taking on Iran would not be too
complicated. Only a month earlier, Undersecretary of Defense for
Policy Douglas Feith had briefed Defense and State Department
officials on how the war in Iraq could be continued into Iran and
Syria in order to replace the regimes there. The plans were quite
extensive and far-reaching. "It was much more than just a contingency
plan," Wilkerson recalled. But just saying no to the Iranians was not
enough. The Beltway hawks apparently wanted to add insult to
injury.
(pp. 251-252):
But the neoconservatives in Washington and hard-liners in the
Israeli government did not want any "quiet contacts." The victory in
Iraq and the rebuffing of the Iranian proposal energized them, and
they redoubled their efforts to convince the White House to target
Iran. "The liberation of Iraq was the first great battle for the
future of the Middle East," wrote William Kristol, a leading
neoconservative and the founder of the Project for the New American
Century, in the Weekly Standard, in early May. "The next great
battle -- not, we hope, a military battle -- will be for Iran. We are
already in a death struggle with Iran over the future of Iraq."
Arguing that success in Iraq would "spell the death knell for the
Iranian revolution," Kristol joined other neoconservatives in
promoting the notion of a domino effect. As Iraq became a democracy,
other dictatorships in the Middle East would either follow suit or
perish under the weight of the demands of their own peoples. "Popular
discontent in Iran tends to heat up when U.S. soldiers get close to
the Islamic Republic," wrote Reuel Marc Gerecht of the American
Enterprise Institute (AEI) in the same magazine.
(pp. 253-255):
The newly created alliance between AIPAC and evangelical Christian
Republicans on Capitol Hill turned out to be particularly helpful for
this cause. Senator Sam Brownback, an ambitious second-term
evangelical Republican from Kansas, had in the early spring of 2003
taken the lead in the Senate in undermining any U.S.-Iran
dialogue. Knowing Powell's inclination to seek a dialogue with Iran
and a grand bargain, Brownback worked to place political obstacles in
Powell's p
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