#^d 2019-09-01 #^h Weekend Roundup
The lead story for most of next week will be Hurricane Dorian, which as I write this (see here and here) is a Category 5 Hurricane moving slowly through the Bahamas toward the coast of Florida. It is expected to turn north and follow the coast (possibly without the eye making landfall) up to North Carolina, where it will most likely head back into the Atlantic. The current tracking forecast puts it off the coast of Palm Beach around 2PM Tuesday, Jacksonville 2PM Wednesday, close to the SC/NC border 2PM Thursday, and straight east of the NC/Va border 2PM Friday. Presumably the storm will lose intensity as it drifts north, but not as quickly as it would if it landed. Rain forecasts are relatively mild, but the coast will see storm surges and a lot of wind.
Dorian was still a tropical storm when it passed over the Windward Islands last Monday (55 mph winds in Barbados, 4.1 inches of rain in Martinique). It wasn't much stronger when it crossed Puerto Rico, but was predicted to intensify to Category 3 or 4 as it headed through the Bahamas to Florida. It did more than that, reaching sustained winds of 185 mph and gusts to 225 mph. The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has been relatively mild so far, even compared to the forecasts (12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 major). With the season about half over, there have been 5 named storms (TS Erin was named after Dorian, but has already dissipated), 2 hurricanes, 1 major (Dorian). The season continues through the end of November, so we're not much below expectations.
Some scattered links this week:
Anya van Wagtendonk: This week in mass shootings:
Mobile, Alabama, high school football game shooting: what we know: "Ten people were injured at the game. At least six were shot. Police have made one arrest."
w/Sean Collins: Odessa and Midland, Texas shootings: what we know: "At least 21 people were shot. At least seven people were killed."
If you'd like to keep score, see Neil Vigdor: 53 people died in mass shootings in August alone in the US.
Liaquat Ahamed: The rich can't get richer forever, can they?: "Inequality comes in waves. The question is when this one will break." Reviews several books, including Binyamin Applebaum's The Economist's Hour: False Prophets, Free Markets, and the Fracture of Society (on Milton Friedman and his "Chicago school" of free market fundamentalists) and Branko Milanovic's Capitalism, Alone: The Future of the System That Rules the World.
David Atkins:
Do conservatives believe there are more bad people in America than elsewhere? Well, sure they do. For starters, they believe there are more conservatives in America than elsewhere.
The conservative pundit problem in the Age of Trump. Well, part of the problem, as he limits himself to conservative pundits cultivated to dialogue with centrist readers of the New York Times and Washington Post (David Brooks, George Will, Bret Stephens), most of which recognize that their brand as sane voices would be jeopardized by following Trump into the fever swamps of the alt-right. That skips over other pundits who've had no qualms about embracing Trump wholeheartedly (e.g., the ones syndicated in my hometown paper: Marc Thiessen and Cal Thomas).
Max Boot: Here are 14 reasons I'll vote for any Democrat over Trump: He starts off by chastising Michael Bloomberg (whom "I have the utmost respect for") for stopping short if the Democratic nominee is Sanders or Warren, then goes on to list his 14 issues. A couple items here I actually lean toward Trump on, but nothing I would vote for him for. Boot and Bloomberg remain narrow ideologues, their differences reflect that the Democratic Left is more of a threat to oligarchs (like Bloomberg) than to neoconservatives (like Boot). But also that Boot still thinks that the Republican Party can be recover from Trump's heresies, corruption and bullshit, and must to keep the empire from collapsing.
Quoctrung Bui/Karl Russell: How much will the trade war cost you by the end of the year? "About $460 over a year for the average family."
Jonathan Chait:
Trump sends morning mistakenly adding question marks to tweets.
Why Trump wants even more pollution than industry does.
But they are businesses. They might be willing to pollute the planet to make money, but it's not their objective. Trump is the product of right-wing media, which has spent years not only denying climate science but turning the issue into a zero-sum culture-war fight in which maximizing fossil fuel production is defined as victory. That, combined with the right's obsession with negating Obama-era policy accomplishments, produces a strange world in which the administration is demanding car companies and fossil fuel producers sacrifice their financial self-interest in order to accelerate climate change.
Trump's partners in the business lobby thought they were undertaking a somewhat unethical yet pragmatic deal with the administration. But some men just want to watch the world burn.
Not the only time I've seen that line this week. See: Tim Dickinson: Some men just want to watch the world burn.
Trump is ordering crimes to get wall built before election. Refers back to a Washington Post article: Nick Miroff/Josh Dawsey: 'Take the land': President Trump wants a border wall. He wants it black. And he wants it by Election Day. Trump is quoted there as promising his subordinates, "Don't worry, I'll pardon you." Regarding his pardon promise, see Randall D Eliason: Trump's pardon offer may have violated federal bribery laws.
Trump went to the mat for Putin at the G-7 Summit: I agree that Russia should be allowed back into the G-8. I'd go further and say that the US needs to get off its assumption of the right and duty to impose sanctions on any country that offends our sense of decorum and order -- a position that Trump only occasionally adheres to, usually only when the checks clear.
Jane Coaston: The problem with primarying Trump. I would have guess it has something to do with money. Sixteen Republicans ran for president in 2016, because that many billionaires felt they had a chance backing whoever best fit their pocket. Regardless of how shaky Trump might look in the general election, running against him is a waste of money: he's consolidated his base within the Republican Party, and his brand and the Party's are now effectively synonymous. The article reads more like the problem is that the challengers are all idiots and cranks, which is the only sort you'd figure to bet against the smart money.
David Cole: Trump doesn't think he's 'ever even heard of a Category 5' hurricane. Four such storms hit the US since he took office. "Trump has previously indicated several other times that Category 5 hurricanes are unprecedented weather events that either he or others had never heard of or witnessed."
Summer Concepcion: Gillibrand campaign insiders felt Franken resignation foiled her bid: New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand gave up on her presidential campaign after failing to qualify for the September debates. This is one of the few reports I've seen that tries to assign blame, probably because they interviewed "Hillary Clinton's former communications director" -- obviously someone who knows a thing or two about deflecting blame elsewhere. Gillibrand was the first Senator to call for Franken's resignation, and I doubt she did so without considering how doing so would reflect on campaign. I thought that was unfair and unwise, but I wouldn't reject her for that. She's moved smartly to the left, and I would have easily picked her over Harris and Klobuchar (or Franken, even before the taint). But she's been a less effective advocate for progressive issues than Sanders and Warren, and her special focus on "women's issues" isn't very distinct. For more:
Amelia Thomson-Deveaux: Why Gillibrand's campaign to win women failed.
Lee Fang: David Koch's most significant legacy is the election of Donald Trump.
Peter S Goodman: Trump can battle China or expand the economy. He can't do both.
Ryan Grim: A top financier of Trump and McConnell is a driving force behind Amazon deforestation: Stephen Schwarzman, of Blackstone, owner "in large part" of Hidrovias do Brasil.
Gerald Horne: Jazz is a music of perseverance against racism and capitalism. Horne has a book: Jazz and Justice: Racism and the Political Economy of Music. Related (interview with Horne): Anton Woronczuk: White supremacy tried to kill jazz. The music triumphed.
John Hudson/Josh Dawsey: Bolton sidelined from Afghanistan policy as his standing with Trump falters.
Rex Huppke: Bret Stephens, Donald Trump and the epidemic of male fragility.
Umair Irfan:
Why it's been so lucrative to destroy the Amazon rainforest.
The Amazon rainforest's worst-case scenario is uncomfortably near.
No, you can't just nuke a hurricane. But there are other options. Well, you could nuke a hurricane, but all you'd get is an exceptionally wide distribution of nuclear fallout. Reviews several only slightly less hare-brained geoengineering schemes.
Sarah Jones:
Capitalism is making us sick: A Q&A with Emily Guendelsberger about her new book, On the Clock. Subtitle: What Low-Wage Work Did to Me and How It Drives America Insane.
Ed Kilgore:
Yes, Trump does terrible things constantly. Does that mean we shouldn't cover Biden's gaffes? Refers to Peter Hamby's "rant": "Are we really going to have a gaffe-fest over Joe Biden?": How clickbait and outrage porn are hurting readers -- and elevating Trump. Well, it's not as if Trump's gaffes have been underreported. One problem is that his gaffes don't seem to have much downside for Trump. Reporting them makes it look like he's being picked on by liberal media elites, endearing him to his base. On the other hand, Biden's gaffes undermine his central message, which is that he intends to restore competent and responsible leadership to the presidency. So, yeah, reporting on them hurts him, and is probably unfair. On the other hand, few in the media are up to reporting on substantive issues. Gaffes are more their speed, which winds up selecting for candidates who make lots of them (actually, good for Biden) and who can slough them off (better for Trump).
If the Democrats take the Senate, they plan to fix Obamacare, not pass Medicare for All. Sure. Some Democrats will balk at Medicare for All, especially in the expansive formulation that Bernie Sanders has proposed, but everyone agrees that the ACA framework can be tuned to work better, so that's where the initial focus will (and should) be. On the other hand, Democrats who want Medicare for All are likely to support better fixes to ACA, because they understand that single-payer is the preferred longer term solution, and because they're not the sort of people who will break an inadequate system in hopes of replacing it with a better one. Would-be saboteurs mostly belong to the other Party.
Jen Kirby: Boris Johnson just suspended Parliament over Brexit. Here's what's going on. More on Brexit:
Nadeem Badshah: Thousands turn out for 'Stop the Coup' protests across UK.
Shami Chakrabarti: The cat is out of the bag -- Boris Johnson's shutdown is unconstitutional.
Isabel Hardman: What happens now? Four scenarios for Brexit's weirdest week.
Polly Toynbee: A civil war state of mind now threatens our democracy: "Boris Johnson's assault on parliament is unprecedented, but he can -- and must -- be stopped."
Andy Kroll: The Trumpiest week ever: "Donald Trump's re-election strategy couldn't be clearer: chaos covering up cruelty."
Paul Krugman:
The frauding of America's farmers. Memorable line: "Do farmers realize that their president considers their livelihood a joke?" Related: Alan Rappeport: Farmers' frustration with Trump grows as US escalates China fight.
Trump and the art of the flail: "Protectionism is worse when it's erratic and unpredictable."
Sharon LaFraniere: Trial of high-powered lawyer Gregory Craig exposes seamy side of Washington's elite.
Eric Levitz:
Don Jr. warns that Joe Biden might abuse presidential powers to enrich his lowlife relatives. Wonder where he ever got an idea like that?
Here are 7 'left wing' ideas (almost) all Americans can get behind.
Trump's lawless wall and callous attacks on Puerto Rico are connected.
Annie Lowrey: The next recession will destroy millennials: "Millennials are already in debt and without savings. After the next downturn, they will be in even bigger trouble." Related (Dec. 6, 2018): Derek Thompson: Millennials didn't kill the economy. The economy killed millennials. "The American system has thrown them into debt, depressed their wages, kept them from buying homes -- and then blamed them for everything."
Dylan Matthews: Trump wants to cut taxes for rich people yet again: "Indexing capital gains to inflation, as Trump is considering, would overwhelmingly benefit the top 1 percent."
Andrew Prokop: The inspector general report on James Comey's memos, explained. Related: Josh Marshall: Of course Comey was right to share the memos. Marshall, with his instinct for big stories, also weighed in on a previously unknown White House staffer getting fired: Getting fired ain't the story. Not clear whether "Ms. Westerhout" has a first name.
David Roberts: Many businesses oppose Trump's deregulatory agenda. Here's why.
Nouriel Roubini: The anatomy of the coming recession: posits three possible "negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession" -- two involving Trump and China, the third oil. Roubini was pretty sharp on the coming of the 2008 recession. Related: Robert J Shiller: The Trump narrative and the next recession.
Aaron Rupar:
Jack Shafer: The fake feud between Trump and Fox. More on the "feud":
Ganesh Sitaraman: To rescue democracy, we must revive the reforms of the Progressive Era.
Matt Stieb:
Leaked draft of UN climate report says warming oceans are 'poised to unleash misery'.
Trump wants to log Alaska's Tongass, world's largest intact temperate rainforest.
The Federal Election Commission could be effectively sidelined in 2020. On the other hand, see: Sue Halpern: Filing the empty seats at the FEC won't fix America's corrupt elections.
Matt Taibbi: John Hickenlooper is the new Joe Lieberman: "What Lieberman was to antiwar Democrats, Colorado's Hickenlooper is to environmentalists." Related: Aida Chavez/Akela Lacy: Senate Democrats' campaign arm is pressuring consultants not to work with leading progressive candidate in Colorado. Chavez previously wrote: National Democrats endorse John Hickenlooper, a proponent of fracking, in competitive Colorado primary.
Philip Weiss: Trump will greenlight West Bank annexation to force Israeli pols to keep Netanyahu as PM, observers say. Other pieces on Israel and the war flare-ups that seem to be part of Netanyahu's reelection campaign:
Ruth Eglash: Netanyahu calls for boycott of Israeli TV channel over 'anti-Semitic' series co-produced by HBO. The show, "Our Boys," was created by three Israelis, who "have already received death threats online from right-wing Israelis." The show focuses on the lynching of a Palestinian teen-ager after three Israeli settler teens were killed in 2014. Netanyahu used the incidents to launch a brutal war on Gaza.
Yossi Gurvitz: If Americans want to understand Israel, they should think of 1950s Alabama, with an air force.
Kamel Hawwash: From Iraq to Lebanon, Israel attacks its neighbors with impunity: "With an election around the corner, Netanyahu has launched a regional show of force, safe in the knowledge that his targets are too weak to retaliate before the September vote."
Joshua Leifer: Israel's one-state reality is sowing chaos in American politics.
Ivan Levingston/David Wainer: The most undiplomatic of diplomats is Trump's man in the Middle East: "David Friedman has upended American policy in the unstable region."
Liz Sly/Suzan Haidamous: Another suspected Israeli strike in Lebanon as war fears intensify. Sly and James McAuley also wrote: Attacks blamed on Israel across three Middle East countries ratchet up tensions.
Sina Toossi: Israeli strikes seek to bait Iran and scuttle US-Iran diplomacy.
Alissa Wilkinson: Political commentary can be both caustic and incisive. Molly Ivins showed America how. Interview with Janice Engel, director of the documentary Raise Hell: The Life and Times of Molly Ivins.
Benjamin Wittes:
Thoughts on the impending prosecution of Andrew McCabe.
Why is that shocking? Because as best as I can tell, the facts available on the public record simply don't support such charges. The only visible factor militating in favor of the Justice Department charging McCabe, in fact, is that the department has been on the receiving end of a sustained campaign by President Trump demanding McCabe's scalp.
Matthew Yglesias:
It's time to talk about James Mattis's involvement with the Theranos scandal: "He's selling a book, not saving the country from Trump." I've seen several articles on Mattis this week, mostly about him being coy about what he will and will not say about his differences with Trump, when and if he will say anything, but this is the one piece that reflects directly on his character:
But Mattis isn't out babysitting Trump anymore. He's trying to sell books. And while his thoughts and reflections on his time in the Trump cabinet are certainly somewhat interesting at this point we hardly need another person to tell us that the president is erratic, uninformed, impulsive and all the rest. This stuff isn't highly guarded state secrets, it's out in public on Twitter for everyone to see. Rather than dwelling on this stuff that's out there and obvious, it would be nice for journalists granted access to the retired general to ask some questions about Theranos.
Fundamentally, Trump's rise to power is part of a broader epidemic of elite impunity in the United States. And Mattis's ability to dabble in questionable activity, cash a few checks, and then skate away with his reputation intact is very much part of the problem.
Donald Trump's escalating war of words with Fed Chair Jay Powell, explained.
The most dangerous idea in central banking, explained. Someone named William Dudley has suggested that the Fed sandbag the economy to hurt Donald Trump's reelection prospects -- or, to put a finer point on it, that the Fed shouldn't attempt to stimulate the economy when Trump's trade wars drag it down. Article points out that some Fed chairs have used their power over the economy to dictate political concessions -- e.g., Alan Greenspan vs. Bill Clinton. I'd add Ben Bernanke vs. Barack Obama, but in that case Republicans were livid that the Fed was doing anything at all to salvage the economy. According to law, the Fed is responsible for balancing competing demands for full employment and low inflation, but in practice the Fed has always kowtowed to the banking interests it is supposed to regulate.
The past 3 wild days in Trump's trade war with China, explained.