#^d 2020-03-15 #^h Weekend Roundup
News this week was totally dominated by the coronavirus pandemic. A good overview is Dylan Matthews: 9 charts that explain the coronavirus pandemic. (For more, see: A coronavirus reading guide for the perplexed, the anxious, and the obsessive.) This has produced a lot of political and economic turmoil, most obviously (or at least best reported) in the United States. The Trump administration, which has worked so hard over the last three years at proving how incompetent, corrupt, and politically blinded government can be, has come off as insensitive, uncaring, and bumbling -- especially the president and his inner tier of henchmen. The one concern they do seem to have is how the disease effects the economy -- especially as the economy has long seemed to be the silver lining in their own political fortunes. The most obvious effects have been the cancellation of nearly all public gatherings (including the NCAA "March Madness" tournaments and the NBA season) and major (mostly but not all self-imposed) reductions in travel. That, in itself, is a big chunk taken out of the economy, with ripple effects to follow. I expect this will extend to a psychology averse to spending, which will persist for months or years.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden has continued to mop up Democratic primaries, winning Mississippi, Missouri, Michigan, Idaho, and probably even Washington last week. (Bernie Sanders did win in North Dakota.) More states will vote soon, but unless Biden stumbles catastrophically there is no chance Sanders can catch up. There is a debate between Sanders and Biden tonight. It should clearly favor Sanders, but I doubt it will have any effect. We seem to be primed for disaster, and willing to settle for just barely less.
Some scattered links this week:
Sasha Abramsky: Our worst crisis since 2008 . . . and we have an idiot at the helm: When this piece appeared in my mailbox, I tweeted:
Sasha Abramsky's title is pretty obvious, but how quickly one forgets that we had "an idiot at the helm" in 2008 as well, and that worse than idiocy, all Bush/Trump proposals bail out the rich while hurting everyone else.
The difference, of course, is that Bush was accustomed to being a "front man," and therefore to deferring to others. When the 2008 crisis hit, he didn't have a clue what to do, so he simply got out of the way, leaving the administration's response to Hank Paulson (his Secretary of Treasury, and more importantly a former CEO of Goldman Sachs). Of course, Bush didn't get out of the way after 9/11. He led the charge into war, first with Afghanistan and then with Iraq. Of course, he surrounded himself with people inclined to rush to war, just as he surrounded himself with big bankers. Trump is no different in that regard, but finds it much harder to get out of the way.
Kamiar Alaei/Arash Alaei: How Iran completely and utterly botched its response to the coronavirus. Object lesson here on "what happens when you make health policy subservient to politics," a statement which succinctly describes Trump's own instincts and those of his most devoted followers.
Fred Barbash: 'Assault on democracy': A sitting federal judge takes on John Roberts, Trump and Republicans: Lynn S Adelman.
Phyllis Bennis: The US-Taliban deal won't bring real peace, but it could reduce the bloodshed. Related: Daniel R DePetris: Could Donald Trump get tricked into staying in Afghanistan?
Cheryl Bernard: Landing at Dulles Airport, I encountered a case study in how to spread a pandemic.
Jamelle Bouie: This is not the moment for progressives to despair: "Disappointed supporters of Bernie Sanders can actually get a lot of what they want through the medium of Joe Biden." As I've been saying for some time now, the answers are on the left. If Biden wants to be effective, he's going to have to move left to adopt them. In some ways, this is like Roosevelt in 1932. He wasn't a leftist. He was at best a pragmatist who was willing to try anything that might work. His major achievements in the first 100 days, and in the months that followed, were scattered all over the map, but the ones that worked were on the left, and that's where he increasingly looked for them. He backed his way into the most progressive presidency in American history. In some ways that was only possible because he wasn't pigeonholed as a leftist.
Jedediah Britton-Purdy: The only treatment for coronavirus is solidarity. Related: Eric Klinenberg: We need social solidarity, not just social distancing.
Katelyn Burns: Trump's 7 worst statements on the coronavirus outbreak.
Beth Cameron: I ran the White House pandemic office. Trump closed it.
John Cassidy: What would a proper coronavirus stimulus plan look like? Some good ideas here, also some not-so-good ones. I personally doubt that drops of cash would help much: reduced demand has more to do with distancing and prudence brought on by fear of mortality than with a shortfall of money, even among those most in need of it. Pumping money faster won't change that, although it would help if/when the fear abates. Much more useful now is patching the floor in the safety net. I've been saying for some time that short of a really nice Medicare-for-All system, we could start by providing bare-bones universal coverage starting with a few obvious needs, and coronavirus testing and treatment just leaped to the top of that list. You could then expand that list gradually -- child care and accidents are obvious needs -- and expect private health insurance, relieved of those expenses, to start to wither away, turning eventually into supplemental policies like many Medicare recipients still buy. It also seems like a good idea to just accept that there's going to be more unemployment as long as the pandemic is raging, and focus on making that less painful for those who lose their jobs.
Steve Coll: Trump's discordant display of nativism in a pandemic.
Mike Davis: Who gets forgotten in a pandemic: "The only certainty is that rich countries and rich classes will focus on saving themselves to the exclusion of international solidarity and medical aid." Davis has thought about this longer than most: fifteen years ago he wrote a book, The Monster at Our Door: The Global Threat of Avian Flu.
David Dayen: Trump first proposed a payroll tax cut six months ago: "And here's why it doesn't make sense as an economic response to the coronavirus."
Daniel W Drezner: The unique incompetence of Donald Trump in a crisis.
Jesse Drucker/Jessica Silver-Greenberg: Trump administration is relaxing oversight of nursing homes.
Joelle Gamble: A survival guide for the coronavirus economy.
Masha Gessen: How the coronavirus pandemic fuels Trump's autocratic instincts. Well, crisis always brings instincts to the fore. I know a guy who after 9/11 argued that we should allow more guns on planes. I think that the pandemic shows that we are more dependent on science than ever, that social trust is extremely important, that private interest is usually suspect, and that we need a trustworthy government all the time -- not just in times of crisis. But Trump? Of course, he thinks we need more Trump. By the way, this New Yorker cover sums him up aptly.
John Judis: Biden in 2020 vs. Clinton in 2016 (vs. Sanders) in Michigan.
Idrees Kahloon: Thomas Piketti goes global. Review of his new book, Capital and Ideology.
Catherine Kim: The Trump administration plans to kick 700,000 off food stamps during a pandemic. That's what "work requirements" mean as recession lays workers off. That's exactly what sane poeple don't want. For an update, see Zeeshan Aleem: Citing coronavirus concerns, a federal judge blocks the Trump administration's food stamp cuts. The House's coronavirus bill would also help here.
Ezra Klein: Coronavirus will also cause a loneliness epidemic: "We need to take both social distancing and the 'social recession' it will cause seriously."
Sharon Lerner: Big Pharma prepares to profit from the coronavirus.
Eric Levitz: The GOP's ideological sickness is going to get people killed.
German Lopez:
The Trump administration's botched coronavirus response, explained.
"I don't take responsibility at all": Trump continues downplaying coronavirus threat: "Even as he declares a national emergency, Trump continues to downplay the risk of the coronavirus."
Andrew Marantz: The man behind Trump's Facebook juggernaut: Brad Parscale.
Dylan Matthews: The Fed's $1.5 trillion loan injection, explained.
Nolan D McCaskill: America shuts down: "From the Capitol to California, officials are taking aggressive new measures to limit social interactions."
Harold Meyerson: Bernie winning battle of ideas, Biden winning nomination.
Ian Millhiser:
Trump judge lays out an aggressive plan to protect Trump from congressional oversight: "Judge Neomi Rao's opinions read like she's acting as Trump's personal protector."
Trump tells a nation terrified of coronavirus that none of this is his fault.
Max Moran: Trump's failing coronavirus response is standard issue Republicanism in 2020.
Ella Nilsen: Democrats have finally struck a deal with the White House on a coronavirus package. Sensible stuff, a far cry from Trump's own wishes: free coronavirus testing, emergency paid sick days, emergency paid leave, expanded unemployment insurance, expanded food security. The bill was passed by the House, but note: Anya van Wagtendonk: The House coronavirus bill's paid leave provision would leave out millions of workers. Also: Li Zhou: The Senate won't consider urgent coronavirus legislation until next week.
Jonathan Ofir: Netanyahu says 'all humanity is in same boats' fighting virus -- except Palestinians.
Alex Pareene:
The dismantled state takes on a pandemic: "Conservatives won their war on Big Government. Their prize is a pandemic."
The Democrats' cult of pragmatism: "Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and other moderates claim they Get Things Done -- but not because they actually do get things done." Not to quibble overly, but my impression is that they do get things done -- just the wrong things. Pareene offers an illuminating example: when Andrew Cuomo won his third term, finally securing a large Democratic majority, the New York legislature passed 935 bills, only to have Cuomo veto 169 of them.
Nomi Prins: Trump wouldn't save you from this pandemic even if he could: "This administration has always prioritized Wall Street over working Americans. Its response to the coronavirus will be more of the same." [Same piece at TomDispatch.]
David Roberts: 4 astonishing signs of coal's declining economic viability. Note, however, that Japan is trying to buck the trend. Umair Irfan: Why the world's third-largest economy is still betting on coal. In a word: Fukushima.
Cass R Sunstein: The right way for presidents to address 'fear itself': "The Great Depression was worse than coronavirus. Yet FDR found a way to warn and reassure all Americans, all at once." No American president ever has handled a crisis as adroitly as Roosevelt dealt with the bank runs in his first month in office. I suspect we're too divided and distrustful to give anyone the same chance these days, but Trump has none of the qualities that made FDR a viable leader. Still, I doubt it's possible to dispel fear from this particular crisis.
Matt Taibbi: Bernie's last chance: "Heading into a one-on-one debate with Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders should not go gentle into that good night." At this point, I doubt that Sanders is going to try to attack or embarrass Biden, but I do expect he'll stick to his issues, especially to point out that the coronavirus pandemic is yet another reason we need Medicare-for-All, as well as a competent, dilligent, and concerned leader in the White House. If Biden fails to present himself as such, Bernie's (and our) loss will be all the more a shame.
Anya van Wagtendonk: The White House reportedly tried to poach a German company working on a coronavirus vaccine: "Trump reportedly wanted the vaccine to be "only for the United States." Actually, I've been wondering what happens if a Chinese company finds and patents the first vaccine. Americans may start to question the sanctity of patent law (which is actually the main issue in most modern "trade" deals).
Alex Ward:
The US retaliatory strikes on an Iran-backed militia in Iraq, briefly explained.
The Saudi Arabia-Russia oil war, explained. One surprise for me is the chart showing that the United States has extended its lead as the world's leading crude oil producer, to 18% of the world total, vs. 12% for Saudi Arabia and 11% for Russia. I knew that the US had been the top producer before its decline following the 1969 "peak oil" moment, and had languished in 2nd or 3rd ever since -- passed first by Saudi Arabia, then by Russia. I knew that with Obama's support for fracking, the US had rebounded recently, and moved into first place, but didn't realize by this much. As the article points out, fracking is expensive, so Saudi and Russian oil are cheaper to produce. When prices decline, they remain profitable, while more expensive resources (especially Canada's vast shale oil deposits) can become prohibitively expensive. Surprised also that Venezuela has dropped off the list. Also that China and Brazil are up there: both are net importers who've never been noted as major producers (although Brazil has long been interested in biofuels, which seems to have been factored in; come to think of it, that may explain why the US share seems so excessive, although I've never thought that biofuel was that big a deal). Related: Juan Cole: "A toothpick in a tsunami": US big oil faces bankruptcy as prices plunge 30% on Saudi expansion. Also: Scott L Montgomery: The oil shock of 2020 appears to be here -- and the pain could be wide and deep. Still, a bit odd to describe falling oil prices as a "shock."
Matthew Yglesias:
The causes of the likely looming recession are different, but the cure is the same.
Coronavirus is the Trump catastrophe we've been terrified of.
Elizabeth Warren did better with college-educated white men than with working class women.
Coronavirus's threat to the global economy -- and what to do about it.